When Shedeur Sanders takes his first NFL snap on Sunday, November 23, 2025, it won’t just be a debut—it’ll be a lifeline for a sinking Cleveland Browns. With starter Dillon Gabriel sidelined by concussion protocol, the 21-year-old rookie, son of NFL legend Deion Sanders, steps into a chaotic offense that’s lost three straight and sits at 2-7. Opposite him, the Las Vegas Raiders, 1-8 and reeling from four consecutive losses, will rely on veteran Geno Smith to stabilize a team that’s somehow managed to cover the spread in two of its last three games despite the losses. The matchup kicks off at 4:05 p.m. Eastern at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada, with CBS and Paramount+ broadcasting what might be the most unpredictable game of Week 12.
Oddsmakers Are Split—But the Raiders Still Hold the Edge
Betting lines are all over the map, which says more about the uncertainty than the teams’ true strength. CBS Sports lists the Raiders as 3.5-point favorites with a money line of -171. Meanwhile, the Beacon Journal reports a sharper -4.0 spread and a Raiders money line of -200. The over/under fluctuates between 36.0 and 36.5 points, suggesting oddsmakers expect a grind, not a shootout. The Browns’ +170 payout is tempting, but here’s the twist: their road ATS record this season is a brutal 0-4. They’ve covered as underdogs before—last week, as 7.5-point dogs against Baltimore—but winning outright? That’s a different beast.Meanwhile, the Raiders, despite their record, have shown resilience against the spread. They’ve covered in 4 of their last 10 games, same as Cleveland. And while they’ve lost four straight, their offensive efficiency tells a different story: 66.6% completion rate, 4.6 yards per play, and 36.2% third-down conversion rate—better than nearly two-thirds of the league. The Browns? They’re averaging just 4.2 yards per play and converting third downs at 31.2%. Yet, they’re more run-heavy (40% rushes vs. 38% for Vegas) and more efficient in the red zone (53.6% touchdown rate vs. 48.2%). One team thrives on precision. The other survives on opportunism.
Who’s Really Better? The Numbers Don’t Lie
TeamRankings.com’s November 23 data paints a stark contrast. The Raiders aren’t just better on paper—they’re objectively more efficient. They pass more, complete more, convert more. But efficiency doesn’t always equal wins. The Browns’ defense has held opponents under 24 points in three of their last four games, including a 17-13 nail-biter against the Ravens. Meanwhile, the Raiders’ defense has allowed 27+ points in three straight, including a 34-14 drubbing by the Chargers. So why do models favor Vegas? Because the Raiders’ offense, even in decline, still has more firepower than Cleveland’s. And Geno Smith? He’s played in bigger games. He’s been here before.Here’s what’s oddly reassuring: the Browns’ offense, with Sanders at the helm, might actually be more dynamic than Gabriel’s. The rookie showed flashes in limited action against Kansas City—quick release, fearless in the pocket, a deep ball that can change a game in one throw. The Raiders, meanwhile, have no clear identity. Their running game is inconsistent, their offensive line has given up 18 sacks in the last five games, and their receivers are plagued by drops. The game might come down to which team’s mistakes cost them more.
Why This Game Matters Beyond the Win Column
For Cleveland, this isn’t just about stopping a four-game skid. It’s about finding their quarterback of the future. Cleveland Browns owner Jimmy Haslam has spent over $100 million on free agents since 2023, yet the team still lacks a franchise QB. Sanders’ debut could be the first real glimpse of that answer. If he leads a comeback, even in a loss, the draft lottery could shift dramatically. The team’s focus, per Dawgs By Nature, is now clearly on the 2026 draft—where they hold a top-five pick and could land a top-tier offensive lineman or another QB prospect.For Las Vegas, it’s about survival. With head coach Antonio Pierce under fire and general manager Dave Ziegler expected to make major changes this offseason, every loss compounds the pressure. The Raiders’ 1-8 record is the worst in the AFC West. A win here doesn’t make them playoff contenders—it just makes them relevant again. And for fans? It’s about hope. The Raiders haven’t won since October 6. They’ve lost by a combined 22 points in their last three games. They’re one play away from being 4-7.
What the Models Say—and Why You Should Doubt Them
CBS Sports’ SportsLine model predicts a 20-19 Raiders win, with Cleveland covering in nearly 60% of simulations. TeamRankings.com’s model, more conservative, forecasts a 19.6-15.4 Raiders victory and gives them a 66.2% chance to win outright. But here’s the kicker: both models agree the game will go under the total—52.2% confidence, per TeamRankings. That’s unusual for a game featuring two teams that average over 22 points per game. Why? Because both offenses are struggling with rhythm. Both defenses are playing smarter. Both quarterbacks are under pressure.It’s not about who’s better. It’s about who wants it more. And right now, Cleveland has more to prove.
What’s Next?
If Sanders thrives, expect him to start Week 13 against the Broncos. If he struggles, Gabriel could return if cleared. For the Raiders, a loss would likely trigger internal reviews—and maybe a quarterback change. Geno Smith is 34. His contract expires after 2025. This could be his last stand in Vegas.Either way, Sunday’s game won’t just determine a record. It’ll shape futures.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Shedeur Sanders starting over Dillon Gabriel?
Dillon Gabriel entered concussion protocol after taking a hard hit in Week 11 against the Ravens, making him ineligible to play under NFL safety rules. With no other proven QB on the roster, the Browns turned to rookie Shedeur Sanders, who showed promise in limited snaps during the preseason and Week 10. His mobility and arm strength make him a better fit for their evolving offensive scheme.
Why are the Raiders favored despite being 1-8?
The Raiders’ offensive efficiency—66.6% completion rate, 36.2% third-down conversion rate—still outpaces the Browns’. They’ve also covered the spread in 40% of their games, showing they’re competitive even when losing. Vegas’ schedule has been brutal, including losses to playoff-caliber teams like the Chiefs and Bills by a combined 14 points. Oddsmakers believe they’re closer to winning than their record suggests.
Is the over/under of 36.5 points a good bet?
Statistically, the under is favored at 52.2% confidence by TeamRankings.com. Both offenses are inconsistent, and both defenses have improved in the red zone. The Browns rank 28th in offensive yards per game; the Raiders are 29th. With low morale and high pressure, expect short drives, punts, and field goals—not touchdowns. The over has hit in only 3 of the Raiders’ last 8 games.
How does this game affect the 2026 NFL Draft?
A Browns loss would drop them to 2-9, improving their draft position. A win could keep them at 3-8, potentially slipping them out of the top five picks. For the Raiders, a loss would lock them into the top-three pick range, possibly giving them a shot at the top QB prospect. Both teams are now prioritizing draft capital over wins—making this game a strange mix of competitive urgency and strategic surrender.
What’s the significance of Allegiant Stadium as a venue?
Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada, is one of the NFL’s most modern venues, with a retractable roof and state-of-the-art turf. But for visiting teams, it’s notoriously difficult to play in—loud, bright, and often packed with Raiders fans despite the team’s record. The home-field advantage, while diminished by poor performance, still creates psychological pressure, especially for rookie quarterbacks like Sanders.
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